A short article got Marketwatch.com’s month’s commentaries off to a fast start on February 1. It centered on a pair of numbers, and “What 2 Mortgage Numbers Say About Home Buying Right Now.”

Here are the numbers—followed by “what they say” (or don’t say):

1.      The Mortgage Bankers Association’s composite index tracks the weekly volume of home loan applications. Last week it fell a seasonally adjusted 9%.

2.      The average 30-year home loan interest rate was 6.19%—the lowest since early September.

In a considerable understatement, MarketWatch observed that the first number—the drop in applications— “does not appear to have been driven by a rise in rates.” Since the rates had gone in the opposite direction, that would seem to be an unexpectedly droll summary.  

So what gives? The MBA’s deputy chief economist commented that when, despite lower rates, application activity declines, it is “...an indication of the still volatile time of the year for housing activity.”

For St. Cloud real estate watchers, that gelled with what many have observed through the years—that annually, as the market prepares for the expected brisk uptick that normally arrives with the traditional spring selling season, volumes of everything related to St. Cloud real estate are usually so low that trends are hard to discern, as are cause-and-effect patterns. The result is “volatility”—when generalizations from the numbers aren’t as reliable as at other times of the year. In this instance, the MBA economist still “expects slower price growth and lower rates to lure buyers back” come spring.

One generalization that holds in every season is the wisdom of preparing for any future St. Cloud real estate plans well ahead of time. Call me to help—I’d love to hear from you!    

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